Ford, GM Top October Sales Views; Fiat Chrysler's Tumble


General Motors (GM), Ford Motor (F) and Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) are set to report October U.S. car sales Wednesday, as analysts see more signs of shrinking demand and potential cuts to production.

XAutoplay: On | OffMeanwhile, GM stock fell Monday on valuation and profitability concerns, after rallying since September on its perceived technological edge over rivals in emerging automotive technologies like electric vehicles and autonomy. And later this week, Tesla (TSLA), which does not report monthly auto sales, reports Q3 results Wednesday, while sports car maker Ferrari (RACE) reports Thursday.

GM stock was down 2.7% in midday trading on the stock market today, after sinking as much as 5.3% earlier. Goldman Sachs downgraded GM to a sell and sees 28% downside risk in the year ahead to its price target of 32.

"Looking ahead into 2018 and given the current valuation level, we see a downward inflection in GM earnings and consequently downgrade shares to sell," wrote Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino in a note Monday. "Our work on pickup trucks and crossovers suggests that GM likely experiences volume and mix headwinds that exacerbate the cyclical profit headwinds."

GM and Ford have already announced factory layoffs and production cuts for some sedans, and October sales reports Wednesday may point to future cuts.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate is estimated to be 17.9 million, according to car info site Kelley Blue Book. That's down from 18.6 million in September, which saw a surge in post-hurricane replacement demand.

"Some of the strength can be attributed to replacement demand that continues in Texas and Florida, but perhaps more importantly, higher incentive spend is playing a role," said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book. With incentives for shoppers reaching 11% of average transaction prices, Fleming noted that this could be an indicator that new-vehicle demand is still contracting and that more production cuts could be on the horizon to prevent oversupplies.

SUVs and trucks are expected to continue to see strong demand in October. The passenger car segment should continue to decline.

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Here's how many new vehicles the major automakers are expected to sell in October, with sales growth (or decline) vs. October 2016:

General Motors

Kelley Blue Book sales estimate: 260,000; +0.5% sales estimate: 239,775; -7.3%

Results: To be announced.

Ford Motor

Kelley Blue Book sales estimate: 195,000; +3.9% sales estimate: 196,556; +5.1%

Results: To be announced.

Fiat Chrysler

Kelley Blue Book sales estimate: 157,000; -11.1% sales estimate: 158,742; -10.1%

Results: To be announced.


Kelley Blue Book sales estimate: 198,000; +6.3% sales estimate: 190,969; +2.5%

Results: To be announced.


Kelley Blue Book sales estimate: 125,000; -0.9% sales estimate: 123,655; -2.0%

Results: To be announced.


Kelley Blue Book sales estimate: 108,000; -4.9% sales estimate: 107,541; -5.3%

Results: To be announced.

Hyundai and Kia

Kelley Blue Book sales estimate: 99,000; -11.2% sales estimate: 99,560; -10.7%

Results: To be announced.

Volkswagen and Audi

Kelley Blue Book sales estimate: 52,500; +11.7% sales estimate: 45,702; +7.5%

Results: To be announced.


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