Week 13 is the last real slate of the college football season, and it's filled with rivalry games and marquee matchups. Still, with bowl season around the corner and given our recent cold streak, we're dialing it back a little bit.
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Buffalo at Bowling Green
Wager: Buffalo -14.5
If we can still treat teams like assets this late in the season, it feels like an opportune time to sell Bowling Green.
After starting the year 1-6 and allowing every FBS opponent to score 38 or more points, the school fired head coach Mike Jinks and promoted defensive coordinator Carl Pelini. Since that time, Bowling Green's 2-1 and allowed fewer than 35 points in each game. However, strength of schedule played a significant role, and we mentioned earlier in the week that the Falcons' supposed turnaround feels a bit fluky.
In those last three games, Bowling Green faced offenses ranked No. 109 (Kent State), No. 129 (Central Michigan), and No. 128 (Akron) by S&P+. But against Buffalo - which is ranked No. 41 by the same system and is averaging 35.4 points per game - we expect the Falcons to regress in the regular-season finale.
Minnesota at Wisconsin
Wager: Over 54
Minnesota and Wisconsin are two of the most misunderstood Big Ten programs. On paper, this feels like a good ol' fashioned slog, but in reality, there could be a ton of points on the scoreboard at Camp Randall Stadium.
This season, Minnesota's allowed just south of 30 points per game - ranking 80th in scoring defense - including at least 42 in three of its four road games. Meanwhile, Wisconsin's outside the top 40 in scoring defense and has a knack for giving up big plays.
South Carolina at Clemson
Wager: Over 58.5
South Carolina's offense has quietly crept up the rankings thanks to a hot surge. The Gamecocks boast some underrated future pro talent at wide receiver, and a quarterback in Jake Bentley who's thrown 12 touchdowns against three interceptions in his last five games. Beating the Tigers' defense through the air is the key, and Bentley's one of the best deep-ball passers in the SEC.
Meanwhile, Clemson's offense struggled out of the gate in its previous two games, but this feels like a great chance to get back on track against a below-average South Carolina defense by S&P+.
Nebraska at Iowa
Recommended Pick: Over 53
Banking on a freshman quarterback to make plays on the road against an above-average defense is often playing with fire, but in the case of Nebraska's Adrian Martinez, it's nothing he hasn't seen before. He's already traveled to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio State, and continues to provide optimism for the future. On the other side, Iowa's offense should pose plenty of matchup problems for a Nebraska defense that's given up 34-plus points in all four road games this season.
Michigan at Ohio State
Recommended Pick: Ohio State +5
We're all familiar with the trends and just how lopsided the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry's been in recent years, but you can toss that out the window. The 2018 edition boils down to price, and we're not passing up the Buckeyes getting five points at home.
Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech
Recommended Pick: Under 48.5
Remember when games featuring Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech were in the 70s just a few years ago? Since then, Conference USA's overall identity has shifted, as a number of offensive juggernauts are now defensive stalwarts. The Hilltoppers and Bulldogs aren't exactly the stoutest teams defensively, but they have plenty of issues scoring, ranking No. 118 and No. 108 in S&P+ offense, respectively. Western Kentucky's also gone under the first-half total in all five of its road games this season.
Coastal Carolina at South Alabama
Recommended Pick: Coastal Carolina -2
After siding with five-win Minnesota over an unmotivated Northwestern team last weekend - and paying for it - we apparently haven't learned our lesson. We'll recommend wagering on Coastal Carolina, which desperately needs one more win to sneak into the postseason mix.
Kansas State at Iowa State
Recommended Pick: Under 40.5
This is yet another fade on Kansas State's offense, which hasn't created much chunk yardage this season. In this one, the Wildcats will match up with an Iowa State defense that's allowed just 20.8 points per game and is ranked No. 19 at limiting explosive plays.
LSU at Texas A&M
Recommended Pick: Texas A&M -3
Texas A&M's Achilles' heel this season has been giving up big gains. The Aggies, despite ranking a strong No. 33 in S&P+ defense, are all the way down at No. 127 in IsoPPP+ defense, which specifically accounts for stopping explosive plays. But that sets up well against LSU, which doesn't create a ton of big plays, while A&M's arguably the best four-loss team in the country. We recommend the home side here.
Pitt at Miami
Recommended Pick: Under 48.5
Pitt's thrived against porous defenses over the last few weeks, but Miami's unit is anything but. The Hurricanes will be the third-best defense the Panthers have faced this season behind Penn State and Notre Dame, who combined to hold Pitt to six and 14 points, respectively. The Panthers have also gone under the total in 10 of their last 11 road games.
Top plays: 31-24-1 (56.4 percent)
Overall record: 61-59-1 (50.4 percent)
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.
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