Calculated Risk Blog

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales

Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, down from 222 thousand the previous week. • At 9:00 AM:
Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 45 states in April

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 45 states in April

From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for April 2018. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 49 states and

Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in April, Foreclosure Inventory Lowest since August 2006

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Mortgage Delinquencies Buck Upward Seasonal Trend in April, Fall to Second Lowest Point in 12 Years • Historically, mortgage delinquencies have risen 85

FOMC Minutes: "A temporary period of inflation modestly above 2 percent would be consistent with inflation objective"

Still on pace for 3 or 4 rate hikes in 2018. Some excerpts: From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, May 1-2, 2018: With regard to the medium-term outlook for monetary policy, all
A few Comments on April New Home Sales

A few Comments on April New Home Sales

New home sales for April were reported at 662,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was below the consensus forecast, and the three previous months were revised down. Sales in
AIA: "Architecture Firm Billings Strengthen in April"

AIA: "Architecture Firm Billings Strengthen in April"

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Firm Billings Strengthen in April The American Institute of Architects
New Home Sales decrease to 662,000 Annual Rate in April

New Home Sales decrease to 662,000 Annual Rate in April

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 662 thousand. The previous three months were revised down, combined. "Sales of new single-family
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Refi Index lowest since December 2000

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Refi Index lowest since December 2000

From the MBA: Mortgage Rates Increase, Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers

Wednesday: New Home Sales, FOMC Minutes

Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 10:00 AM: New Home Sales for April from the Census
FDIC: Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declined in Q1

FDIC: Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declined in Q1

The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q1 today: Aggregate net income for the 5,606 FDIC-insured commercial banks and savings institutions reporting first quarter performance totaled $56

Existing Home Sales: Take the Under for April

Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for 8+ years. The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler's predictions, and the NAR's

Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Firms Reported Robust Growth in May"

From the Richmond Fed: Fifth District Manufacturing Firms Reported Robust Growth in May Fifth District manufacturing firms saw robust growth in May, according to survey results from the Federal
The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales

The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales

Whenever I'm driving, it seems like I'm surrounded by more and more SUVs and trucks. So I thought I'd look at the changing mix of vehicle sales over time (between passenger cars and light trucks /

"Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Begin Week", Near 7 Year High

Tuesday: • At 10:00 AM ET, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May. From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Begin Week Mortgage rates held steady today,

Ten Years Ago: Looking back at a Foreclosure

Ten years ago today, I wrote House Price Mosaic. This was a discussion of how areas with significant foreclosure activity were seeing larger price declines (as expected). In the post, I mentioned a
Oil Prices Up almost 50% Year-over-year

Oil Prices Up almost 50% Year-over-year

First, an excerpt from a research note by Merrill Lynch economists today: If bad luck intersects with bad policy, a recession becomes a real risk. We would keep a particularly close eye on two
Chicago Fed "Index Points to Little Change in Economic Growth in April"

Chicago Fed "Index Points to Little Change in Economic Growth in April"

From the Chicago Fed: Index Points to Little Change in Economic Growth in April The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked up to +0.34 in April from +0.32 in March. Two of the four broad

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend: • Schedule for Week of May 20, 2018 Monday: • 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April. This is a composite index of other data. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg

"Do People Really Downsize?"

Some interesting analysis from economist Josh Lehner, at the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis on whether people actually downsize in retirement. This is important since so many baby boomers are
Schedule for Week of May 20, 2018

Schedule for Week of May 20, 2018

The key economic reports this week are April New and Existing home sales. ----- Monday, May 21st ----- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April. This is a composite index of other