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Calculated Risk Blog

Oil Rigs: "A breather after last week's big gains"

Oil Rigs: "A breather after last week's big gains"

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on August 17, 2018: • Oil rigs took a breather, consolidating last week’s gains • Total rigs were flat at 869 • Horizontal oil rigs

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I project that

Q3 GDP Forecasts

From Goldman Sachs: We lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +3.2% [Aug 16 estimate]. emphasis addedFrom Merrill Lynch: We nudged down 3Q GDP tracking by a tenth to 3.3%. [Aug 15
BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 11 states in July, Oregon at New Low

BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 11 states in July, Oregon at New Low

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in July in 11 states, higher in 2 states, and stable in 37 states and the District of Columbia, the

Houston: Existing Home Sales up 9.1% YoY, Inventory down 3.5% YoY

From the HAR: Houston Real Estate Stays Hot in July Houston home sales showed no let-up in July, but the pace was not enough to rival the record-setting volume and pricing set in June. Inventory

California: "Housing market retreats", Inventory up 11.9% YoY

The CAR reported today: California’s housing market retreats for third straight month as affordability crunch dampens demand California’s housing market backpedaled in July on an annual basis for the
Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "Growth in activity slowed" in August

Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "Growth in activity slowed" in August

From the Philly Fed: August 2018 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Growth in regional manufacturing activity slowed in August, according to results from this month’s Manufacturing Business
Comments on July Housing Starts

Comments on July Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts at 1.168 Million Annual Rate in July Housing starts in July were disappointing once again, and starts for May and June were revised down. However this was just the second
MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Rate decreased in Q2

MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Rate decreased in Q2

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Down in 2nd Quarter of 2018 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.36 percent
Housing Starts at 1.168 Million Annual Rate in July

Housing Starts at 1.168 Million Annual Rate in July

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,168,000. This is 0.9 percent above the
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 212,000

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 212,000

The DOL reported: In the week ending August 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 212,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's

Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg

Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for July. The consensus is for 1.271 million SAAR, up from 1.173 million SAAR. • Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be
LA area Port Traffic Mostly Unchanged YoY in July

LA area Port Traffic Mostly Unchanged YoY in July

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container

Earlier from the NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity remained robust in New York State"

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity remained robust in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The
NAHB: Builder Confidence declines to 67 in August

NAHB: Builder Confidence declines to 67 in August

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 67 in August, down from 68 in July. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales
Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in July

Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in July

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in July after rising at an average pace of 0.5 percent over the previous five months.
Retail Sales increased 0.5% in July

Retail Sales increased 0.5% in July

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.5 percent from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 6.4 percent from July 2017. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s

Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Confidence, NY Fed Mfg

Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for July will be released. The

California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 3 Percent YoY in July, Inventory up 2% YoY

Here are some Bay Area stats from Pacific Union chief economist Selma Hepp: Finally More Bay Area Housing Inventory After 16 Months of Declines • The Bay Area's decline in home sales (single-family