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Calculated Risk Blog

Q3 GDP Forecasts

The BEA is scheduled to release the advance estimate of Q3 GDP on Friday, Oct 26th. The early consensus is real GDP increased 3.3% on an annualized basis in Q3. Here are a few forecasts: From Merrill
BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 9 states in September, Six States at New Series Lows

BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 9 states in September, Six States at New Series Lows

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in September in 9 states, higher in 4 states, and stable in 37 states and the District of Columbia,
A Few Comments on September Existing Home Sales

A Few Comments on September Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Declined to 5.15 million in September A few key points: 1) The key for the housing - and the overall economy - is new home sales, single family housing starts and
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Declined to 5.15 million in September

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Declined to 5.15 million in September

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decline Across the Country in September Existing-home sales declined in September after a month of stagnation in August, according to the National Association of
Merrill on House Prices

Merrill on House Prices

A few excerpts from a Merrill Lynch note on house prices: Home prices nationally, as measured by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index are running at 6.0% yoy as of the latest data in July.

Friday: Existing Home Sales

Friday: • At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for September from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.30 million SAAR, down from 5.34 million in August. Housing economist

Phoenix Real Estate in September: Sales down 6% YoY, Active Inventory down 7.5% YoY

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying. The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports ("Stats Report"): 1)

Lawler: Deaths, Immigration, and “the Demographics”

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Deaths, Immigration, and “the Demographics” Projections of the US population by characteristics, especially age, are key inputs into intermediate and long term

Look Ahead to Existing Home Sales for September

The NAR is scheduled to release Existing Home Sales for September at 10:00 AM tomorrow. The consensus is for 5.30 million SAAR, down from 5.34 million in August. Housing economist Tom Lawler
Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Suggested "Steady" Growth in October

Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Suggested "Steady" Growth in October

Earlier: From the Philly Fed: October 2018 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey egional manufacturing activity continued to grow in October, according to results from this month’s Manufacturing
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 210,000

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 210,000

The DOL reported: In the week ending October 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg

Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 215 thousand initial claims, up from 214 thousand the previous week. • At 8:30 AM, the

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the

FOMC Minutes: Further Gradual Increases "Would be appropriate"

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 25-26, 2018: In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants generally judged that the economy was
Comments on September Housing Starts

Comments on September Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.201 Million Annual Rate in September Housing starts in September were slightly below expectations, and starts for July and August were revised down slightly.
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.201 Million Annual Rate in September

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.201 Million Annual Rate in September

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately‐owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,201,000. This is 5.3 percent below
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decline in Latest MBA Weekly Surve Mortgage applications decreased 7.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s

Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes

Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for September. The consensus is
Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust

Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust

Way back in 2005, I posted a graph of the Real Estate Agent Boom. Here is another update to the graph. The graph shows the number of real estate licensees in California. The number of agents peaked
BLS: Job Openings "reached a series high of 7.1 million" in August

BLS: Job Openings "reached a series high of 7.1 million" in August

Notes: In August there were 6.939 million job openings, and, according to the August Employment report, there were 6.234 million unemployed. So, for the fifth consecutive month, there were more job