Calculated Risk Blog

Oil Rigs "Oil rig counts take a breather"

Oil Rigs "Oil rig counts take a breather"

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Feb 23, 2018: • Total US oil rigs took an anticipated breather this week, +1 to 799 • Horizontal oil rigs were up, +1 to
Lawler: "Census:  Population Growth Slowed Slightly in 2017:  Immigration Uncertainty Clouds Outlook"

Lawler: "Census: Population Growth Slowed Slightly in 2017: Immigration Uncertainty Clouds Outlook"

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Census: Population Growth Slowed Slightly in 2017: Immigration Uncertainty Clouds Outlook At the end of last year the Census Bureau released its estimate of the US
House Prices: NAR Median Prices vs Case-Shiller Index

House Prices: NAR Median Prices vs Case-Shiller Index

During the housing bubble and subsequent bust, I noted that the median house price could be distorted by the mix of houses sold. I preferred to use the repeat sales indexes from the FHFA, Case-Shiller

Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate decreased in January

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Mortgage Delinquencies Decline Sharply in January; Hurricanes’ Lingering Impact on Performance Continues • Calendar-driven effects and fewer

Duy's Fed Watch: "Fedspeak Reiterates Gradual Path"

From Professor Tim Duy at Fed Watch: Fedspeak Reiterates Gradual Path Fed speakers continue to reiterate that policy remains on a gradual path of tightening. So far, the inflation data and
Hotels: Solid Start for Occupancy Rate in 2018

Hotels: Solid Start for Occupancy Rate in 2018

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 17 February The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 11-17

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Continued Solid Growth" in February

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Posted Continued Solid Growth The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the February Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 222,000

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 222,000

The DOL reported: In the week ending February 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's

Thursday: Unemployment Claims

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Hit New 4-Year Highs Mortgage rates continued higher today following the release of the Minutes from the Federal Reserve's (aka "The Fed")
House Prices and Inventory

House Prices and Inventory

This will be an interesting year for housing. With the tax changes - and rising mortgage rates - a key question is: What will be the impact on housing? The answer is no one knows for sure. For the

FOMC Minutes: "Labor market continued to strengthen and that economic activity expanded at a solid rate"

Still on pace for 3 or 4 rate hikes in 2018, although few signs of "broad-based pickup in wage growth". Some excerpts: From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 30-31, 2018:
A Few Comments on January Existing Home Sales

A Few Comments on January Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Slip 3.2 Percent in January" A few key points: 1) As usual, housing economist Tom Lawler's forecast was closer to the NAR report than the consensus. See: Lawler:
AIA: "Architecture billings continue growth into 2018"

AIA: "Architecture billings continue growth into 2018"

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture billings continue growth into 2018 2018 started on a strong note for
NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Slip 3.2 Percent in January"

NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Slip 3.2 Percent in January"

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Slip 3.2 Percent in January Existing-home sales slumped for the second consecutive month in January and experienced their largest decline on an annual basis in over
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 6.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s

Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unable to Extend Last Week's Gains Mortgage rates moved back up today after ending last week on a positive note. Improvements in rates have

Q1 GDP Forecasts

It is early, but here are few Q1 GDP forecast. From Merrill Lynch: The weak retail sales data sliced 0.3pp from our 1Q estimate to 2.0%, while 4Q 2017 dropped to 2.5% from 2.7%.And from the Altanta
Update: For Fun, Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success

Update: For Fun, Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success

Note: This is mostly a repeat of a June 2017 post with updated statistics and graph, and one new quote. There are a number of observers who think the stock market is the key barometer of policy
Chemical Activity Barometer Increased in February

Chemical Activity Barometer Increased in February

Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production. From the American Chemistry Council: Industrial Activity Signals Further Gains in U.S. Economy he Chemical Activity Barometer
Ten Years Ago: Housing Starts were down Sharply as the Great Recession Started

Ten Years Ago: Housing Starts were down Sharply as the Great Recession Started

It is hard to believe this was 10 years ago ... Ten years ago today, I discussed housing starts: Single Family Housing Starts Lowest Since Jan 1991 "Single-family housing starts in January were at a